The United S
Jan
15
A long time high foreign exchange reserves, in the fourth quarter of last year occurred in December 2003 the first decline since. This trend will continue into this year?
5 years down the balance of the first
State Administration of Foreign Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "foreign exchange bureau") Capital Project Management Division Director of Investment Division, a meeting had publicly stated that since September last year, since the financial crisis has transformed the financial tsunami. Monitored from the Exchange Bureau statistics, the import and export, direct investment, individuals under the settlement is still a surplus of foreign exchange receipts and disbursements, but the growth rate has dropped significantly. Foreign exchange reserves since December 2003 the first decline since a maximum of 1.9 hours more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars, is already lower than this figure. It is reported that, as at the end of October last year, the balance of foreign exchange reserves has dropped to USD 1.89 trillion yuan. On this basis, while foreign exchange reserves in October last year, dropped at least 15.6 billion U.S. dollars.
The latest data show that last year's foreign exchange reserves amounted to 9 at the end of 1.9056 trillion U.S. dollars, last year's fourth quarter data yet to be announced. However, from the monetary authorities, "foreign assets" and financial institutions to "foreign exchange" data can be seen that since October last year, a significant reduction in foreign exchange inflows. Foreign exchange in October last year, an increase of 165.7 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in November by 112.3 billion yuan foreign exchange only for the April 2006 meeting since the low; October monetary authorities, "foreign assets" incremental also significantly reduced, only 166.6 billion yuan.
Under normal circumstances, foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange data is very close. If the foreign exchange data in November last year, deducting the month's trade surplus 40 billion U.S. dollars and actual utilization of foreign capital amount of 5.3 billion U.S. dollars, 100 million U.S. dollars the month -289 appear to explain some of the not. By the same method of calculation, in August last year and October, respectively, out of about 60 billion U.S. dollars and 120 billion U.S. dollars.
However, can not be directly accordingly concluded that the outflow of funds led to declining foreign exchange reserves, this is because the trade surplus and trade surplus of foreign exchange settlement, the actual utilization of foreign capital and foreign investment capital settlement There is a certain difference between the both, but the difference with the exchange rate is expected to change. Therefore, whether there is an outflow of capital, remains to be seen.
According to reports, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee Fan Gang members in a meeting held recently in the balance of foreign exchange reserves fell explained that changes in asset prices over the past few months is very large, particularly the euro exchange rate fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves led to changes in book value. "The trade surplus is still growing, reaching new heights in the last few months, direct foreign investment although there was a drop in the estimates of capital flows in general still are."
A regulatory authorities on the "First Financial Daily" said it is estimated that foreign currency reserve assets of euro denominated assets accounting for about 15% to 20% in September last year to the substantial depreciation of the euro in November, resulting in the stock of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves in the euro foreign exchange depreciation of assets.
PrimeCredit Securities report also holds that view. The report said that as a result of foreign exchange reserves at current prices, the decline in foreign exchange reserves with the central bank net foreign assets increased by the departure from the foreign currency assets are likely to come from changes in market prices.
Another worthy of attention is the residents and changes in foreign exchange settlement and sales business. With the appreciation of the renminbi is expected reduction of the size of a gradual decline in foreign exchange, and increased the scale of potential growth. The local branch of a foreign exchange bureau told this newspaper, the potential growth in his region than a marked increase in volume. "Overall, no apparent signs of capital outflow, but the (foreign exchange bureaus) Office have asked us to strengthen monitoring." The sources said.
"Double surplus" continue?
Foreign exchange reserves will decline in a row? Support for high growth in foreign reserves was mainly sustained the "double surplus", if the "double surplus" continued difficult, foreign exchange reserves as well as to reduce the slowdown is not unexpected.
Under the current capital inflows mainly from trade in goods. Although the trade surplus in November last year still reached about 40 billion U.S. dollars of the record, but does not mean that the surplus can be sustained, contrary to the high surplus in the import and export growth are the basis of the substantial decrease in realized. Last year, imports in November fell 17.9 percent, exports fell 2.2 percent; month trade surplus of 40.09 billion U.S. dollars; month growth rate of imports and exports respectively, since February 2005 and June 2001 for the first time negative growth.
"On the one hand, the import growth rate reflected a decline in domestic demand weakened, on the other hand, constitute a leading indicator of exports. Current imports fell faster, suggesting that the export prospects for the future even more severe. When total exports base is compressed to a certain extent will inevitably surplus shrinking fast. "Societe Generale Bank (now 601,166 shares, market, information, the main trading) Financial operations center political commissar, chief economist, said Lu. A fixed-income securities Ministry estimates, the next few months the trade surplus is likely to drop to a single month to about 10 billion U.S. dollars.
Some analysts believe that the capital account deficit this year more likely. From the capital and financial perspective, in November last year, FDI (foreign direct investment) of foreign capital actually used 5.322 billion U.S. dollars, up 36.52 percent decline. Indeed, since starting in June last year, FDI on the basic trend in monthly decline.
Guohai Securities analysis, FDI decline in addition to the amount of the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to weaken, foreign exchange bureau of foreign exchange capital to strengthen the foreign exchange regulation relating to, this may also because Europe and the United States credit crisis has spread to the real economy, in order to ease the tension of funds, European and American companies to reduce Foreign direct investment, and profits of foreign exchange after remittances to supplement working capital.
Lu, political commissar of the forecast, with the international and domestic economy continues a downward adjustment, the future FDI will continue to fall, is expected to single month is likely to gradually drop to 35 billion to four billion U.S. dollars.
Securities investment under capital inflows may continue to decline this year. Exchange Bureau report showed that the international balance of payments, first half of last year the net inflow of foreign portfolio investment fell 51%; first half of last year, domestic enterprises to issue shares to raise funds outside the 3.8 billion U.S. dollars, down 49%; QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional investors) Net export 070 million U.S. dollars, over the same period in 2007 for a net inflow of 1.52 billion U.S. dollars.
5 years down the balance of the first
State Administration of Foreign Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "foreign exchange bureau") Capital Project Management Division Director of Investment Division, a meeting had publicly stated that since September last year, since the financial crisis has transformed the financial tsunami. Monitored from the Exchange Bureau statistics, the import and export, direct investment, individuals under the settlement is still a surplus of foreign exchange receipts and disbursements, but the growth rate has dropped significantly. Foreign exchange reserves since December 2003 the first decline since a maximum of 1.9 hours more than 1 trillion U.S. dollars, is already lower than this figure. It is reported that, as at the end of October last year, the balance of foreign exchange reserves has dropped to USD 1.89 trillion yuan. On this basis, while foreign exchange reserves in October last year, dropped at least 15.6 billion U.S. dollars.
The latest data show that last year's foreign exchange reserves amounted to 9 at the end of 1.9056 trillion U.S. dollars, last year's fourth quarter data yet to be announced. However, from the monetary authorities, "foreign assets" and financial institutions to "foreign exchange" data can be seen that since October last year, a significant reduction in foreign exchange inflows. Foreign exchange in October last year, an increase of 165.7 billion yuan (RMB, the same below) in November by 112.3 billion yuan foreign exchange only for the April 2006 meeting since the low; October monetary authorities, "foreign assets" incremental also significantly reduced, only 166.6 billion yuan.
Under normal circumstances, foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange data is very close. If the foreign exchange data in November last year, deducting the month's trade surplus 40 billion U.S. dollars and actual utilization of foreign capital amount of 5.3 billion U.S. dollars, 100 million U.S. dollars the month -289 appear to explain some of the not. By the same method of calculation, in August last year and October, respectively, out of about 60 billion U.S. dollars and 120 billion U.S. dollars.
However, can not be directly accordingly concluded that the outflow of funds led to declining foreign exchange reserves, this is because the trade surplus and trade surplus of foreign exchange settlement, the actual utilization of foreign capital and foreign investment capital settlement There is a certain difference between the both, but the difference with the exchange rate is expected to change. Therefore, whether there is an outflow of capital, remains to be seen.
According to reports, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee Fan Gang members in a meeting held recently in the balance of foreign exchange reserves fell explained that changes in asset prices over the past few months is very large, particularly the euro exchange rate fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves led to changes in book value. "The trade surplus is still growing, reaching new heights in the last few months, direct foreign investment although there was a drop in the estimates of capital flows in general still are."
A regulatory authorities on the "First Financial Daily" said it is estimated that foreign currency reserve assets of euro denominated assets accounting for about 15% to 20% in September last year to the substantial depreciation of the euro in November, resulting in the stock of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves in the euro foreign exchange depreciation of assets.
PrimeCredit Securities report also holds that view. The report said that as a result of foreign exchange reserves at current prices, the decline in foreign exchange reserves with the central bank net foreign assets increased by the departure from the foreign currency assets are likely to come from changes in market prices.
Another worthy of attention is the residents and changes in foreign exchange settlement and sales business. With the appreciation of the renminbi is expected reduction of the size of a gradual decline in foreign exchange, and increased the scale of potential growth. The local branch of a foreign exchange bureau told this newspaper, the potential growth in his region than a marked increase in volume. "Overall, no apparent signs of capital outflow, but the (foreign exchange bureaus) Office have asked us to strengthen monitoring." The sources said.
"Double surplus" continue?
Foreign exchange reserves will decline in a row? Support for high growth in foreign reserves was mainly sustained the "double surplus", if the "double surplus" continued difficult, foreign exchange reserves as well as to reduce the slowdown is not unexpected.
Under the current capital inflows mainly from trade in goods. Although the trade surplus in November last year still reached about 40 billion U.S. dollars of the record, but does not mean that the surplus can be sustained, contrary to the high surplus in the import and export growth are the basis of the substantial decrease in realized. Last year, imports in November fell 17.9 percent, exports fell 2.2 percent; month trade surplus of 40.09 billion U.S. dollars; month growth rate of imports and exports respectively, since February 2005 and June 2001 for the first time negative growth.
"On the one hand, the import growth rate reflected a decline in domestic demand weakened, on the other hand, constitute a leading indicator of exports. Current imports fell faster, suggesting that the export prospects for the future even more severe. When total exports base is compressed to a certain extent will inevitably surplus shrinking fast. "Societe Generale Bank (now 601,166 shares, market, information, the main trading) Financial operations center political commissar, chief economist, said Lu. A fixed-income securities Ministry estimates, the next few months the trade surplus is likely to drop to a single month to about 10 billion U.S. dollars.
Some analysts believe that the capital account deficit this year more likely. From the capital and financial perspective, in November last year, FDI (foreign direct investment) of foreign capital actually used 5.322 billion U.S. dollars, up 36.52 percent decline. Indeed, since starting in June last year, FDI on the basic trend in monthly decline.
Guohai Securities analysis, FDI decline in addition to the amount of the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to weaken, foreign exchange bureau of foreign exchange capital to strengthen the foreign exchange regulation relating to, this may also because Europe and the United States credit crisis has spread to the real economy, in order to ease the tension of funds, European and American companies to reduce Foreign direct investment, and profits of foreign exchange after remittances to supplement working capital.
Lu, political commissar of the forecast, with the international and domestic economy continues a downward adjustment, the future FDI will continue to fall, is expected to single month is likely to gradually drop to 35 billion to four billion U.S. dollars.
Securities investment under capital inflows may continue to decline this year. Exchange Bureau report showed that the international balance of payments, first half of last year the net inflow of foreign portfolio investment fell 51%; first half of last year, domestic enterprises to issue shares to raise funds outside the 3.8 billion U.S. dollars, down 49%; QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional investors) Net export 070 million U.S. dollars, over the same period in 2007 for a net inflow of 1.52 billion U.S. dollars.
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